Trump’s Deterrence Has Failed: Iran Is Still Hitting Back and the Strait Stays Closed

The United States entered its third week of war with Iran on Saturday confronting an uncomfortable reality: its military deterrence had not worked as intended. Despite the bombing of Kharg Island, the killing of senior Iranian leaders, and the deployment of additional naval forces, Iran had not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, had not halted its missile attacks on US allies, and had not signalled any readiness to negotiate. President Trump said publicly the current terms were not good enough for a deal, which analysts noted meant there were no terms at all — no active negotiations, no diplomatic back channel, no off-ramp.
Iran’s actions on Saturday confirmed its defiance. Ballistic missiles struck the UAE’s Fujairah oil port, suspending loading operations. Iranian commanders threatened any Gulf energy facility with American ties. The foreign minister called on Arab states to expel US forces. Iran continued firing rockets at Israel. Israeli warplanes conducted dozens of raids inside Iran, killing at least 15 people in Isfahan. Every front was active. Every threat was being executed. Iran showed no sign of modifying its behaviour in response to the mounting military pressure against it.
US warplanes struck Kharg Island for the second consecutive day. Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, framing it as a collective defence of global commerce. His appeal was the first public admission that the US might not be able to reopen the waterway alone. Energy prices were approaching $120 per barrel, and analysts warned of a surge to $150 if the conflict continued destroying Gulf energy infrastructure. Trump had threatened to strike Iran’s remaining oil facilities if the Hormuz blockade continued.
The USS Tripoli and 2,500 additional US marines were heading to the region. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran’s leadership was “desperate and hiding” and that the new supreme leader had been wounded. Iranian officials confirmed Khamenei’s injury but called it minor. The International Crisis Group assessed the regime as structurally intact and executing a deliberate strategy of survival, retaliation, and prolonged conflict. That strategy, if successful, would mean the war continued for weeks or months more.
The human and economic toll of the conflict was growing at an alarming rate. More than 1,400 Iranians had been killed in sustained bombing. Thirteen Israelis and roughly 20 Gulf residents had died. Lebanon’s crisis continued, with 800 killed and 850,000 displaced from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Six US troops died in a military aircraft crash in Iraq. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck and Americans in Iraq were ordered to leave. The combination of military stalemate, economic disruption, and human suffering made finding an exit from the conflict more urgent with every passing day.